Wednesday, October 31, 2012

As Pres. Obama's "leads" crumble, the "undertow" election outcome strengthens

I recently read and realized that certain elections with big margins of victory are "wave" elections (obvious) and others are "undertow" elections (surprising and beneath the surface).

The Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT poll of FL/OH/VA shows Pres. Obama's leads vanishing (except in OH):  FL - 10/28: O+1, 9/26: O+9; OH - 10/28: O+5, 10/22: O+5; VA - 10/28: O+2, 10/11: O+5

These numbers are even more significant when we take into consideration their current party ID samples and compare them with 2008/2010 CNN exit polls:  
FL - Now: D+7, '08: D+3, '10: Even
OH - Now: D+8; '08: D+8, '10: R+1
VA - Now: D+8, '08: D+6, '10: N/A (no governor/senate election)

So let me get this straight, FL/VA will increase their 2012 Democratic voter turnout advantage by 4/2 in 2008.  Seriously?  And OH will remain D+8, even though it was R+1 in 2010?

Thus, the undertow narrative:  The current poll shows the President "leading" with Democrat/Republican turnout models that are the same or BETTER for him than 2008.  Wow.  In other words, if FL/VA had the same partisan D/R turnout as 2008 and ignoring independents (which Romney leads the poll in each state by 5 points or more -- 21 in VA!), the President would be losing FL by 3, VA would be tied, and OH would remain the same.  

Here's the beneath-the-surface problem for the President.  Sure, he's leading in the top-line, head-to-head numbers, yet no one outside liberal la-la land (or maybe even there) believes he will increase his base's 2008 turnout advantage in FL/VA or maintain it in OH.

How do we know the D+ turnout advantage will be lower in 2012 than 2008?  First of all, common sense:  In 2010, the D+ turnout advantage in FL/OH flipped 3/9 points towards Republicans.  Will it really flip back to Democrats 7/9 in 2012?  I think someone would have to live in a Doc Brown alternate universe to accept such a return (or improvement), in today's political climate.  Long gone is candidate Hope and Change and many O 2008 supporters have switched their allegiance or will be staying home in 2012.

What's the empirical evidence or hard data for this 2008/2012 shift?  Both Gallup and Rasmussen predict a Republican voter turnout advantage in 2012.  Yet, the media fails to peek behind the curtians.  Skim this CNN update, e.g., breaking down our current Quinn/CBS/NYT polls:  ANY mention of Democrat oversampling?  "Oversampling?  What's that?" wonders CNN.

Here's where the undertow scenario emerges:  The President's leads in the Quinn/CBS/NYT poll all cling to an other-world-assumption that he will crush Republican enthusiasm with a huge Democrat turnout advantage, a la 2008 or better.  The media, liberal pundits, and liberals all believe (or ignore or are ignorant of) it, while Independents (who are strongly backing Romney) and invigorated/galvanized Republicans know otherwise.  Sure, the election's "in the bag" for President Attack and Blame, yet it might come as a shock to liberals and the media when he's sucked under the 2012 Republican current and tossed out on November 6. (where I got the undertow anlogy)

[Further undertow thoughts:  *MI* is only +3 Obama right now (he won MI by 16 in 2008!), with MN and PA(!) both in play, as well.  Republicans are killing it with absentee ballots over 2008 in OH with a 58% reduction of Democrat advantage:  OH usually has less D+ turnout than the country and many OH "already voted" voters may actually be, cough, lying:  Finally, why I, also, believe Pres. Obama is toast:]

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