As Pres. Obama's "leads" crumble, the "undertow" election outcome strengthens

I recently read and realized that certain elections with big margins of victory are "wave" elections (obvious) and others are "undertow" elections (surprising and beneath the surface).

The Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT poll of FL/OH/VA shows Pres. Obama's leads vanishing (except in OH):  FL - 10/28: O+1, 9/26: O+9; OH - 10/28: O+5, 10/22: O+5; VA - 10/28: O+2, 10/11: O+5

These numbers are even more significant when we take into consideration their current party ID samples and compare them with 2008/2010 CNN exit polls:  
FL - Now: D+7, '08: D+3, '10: Even
OH - Now: D+8; '08: D+8, '10: R+1
VA - Now: D+8, '08: D+6, '10: N/A (no governor/senate election)

So let me get this straight, FL/VA will increase their 2012 Democratic voter turnout advantage by 4/2 in 2008.  Seriously?  And OH will remain D+8, even though it was R+1 in 2010?

Thus, the undertow narrative:  The current poll shows the President "leading" with Democrat/Republican turnout models that are the same or BETTER for him than 2008.  Wow.  In other words, if FL/VA had the same partisan D/R turnout as 2008 and ignoring independents (which Romney leads the poll in each state by 5 points or more -- 21 in VA!), the President would be losing FL by 3, VA would be tied, and OH would remain the same.  

Here's the beneath-the-surface problem for the President.  Sure, he's leading in the top-line, head-to-head numbers, yet no one outside liberal la-la land (or maybe even there) believes he will increase his base's 2008 turnout advantage in FL/VA or maintain it in OH.

How do we know the D+ turnout advantage will be lower in 2012 than 2008?  First of all, common sense:  In 2010, the D+ turnout advantage in FL/OH flipped 3/9 points towards Republicans.  Will it really flip back to Democrats 7/9 in 2012?  I think someone would have to live in a Doc Brown alternate universe to accept such a return (or improvement), in today's political climate.  Long gone is candidate Hope and Change and many O 2008 supporters have switched their allegiance or will be staying home in 2012.

What's the empirical evidence or hard data for this 2008/2012 shift?  Both Gallup and Rasmussen predict a Republican voter turnout advantage in 2012.  http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/swingometer-gallup-party-id-figures-predict-solid-romney-win/  Yet, the media fails to peek behind the curtians.  Skim this CNN update, e.g., breaking down our current Quinn/CBS/NYT polls:  http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/31/polls-close-contests-in-ohio-florida-and-virginia/  ANY mention of Democrat oversampling?  "Oversampling?  What's that?" wonders CNN.

Here's where the undertow scenario emerges:  The President's leads in the Quinn/CBS/NYT poll all cling to an other-world-assumption that he will crush Republican enthusiasm with a huge Democrat turnout advantage, a la 2008 or better.  The media, liberal pundits, and liberals all believe (or ignore or are ignorant of) it, while Independents (who are strongly backing Romney) and invigorated/galvanized Republicans know otherwise.  Sure, the election's "in the bag" for President Attack and Blame, yet it might come as a shock to liberals and the media when he's sucked under the 2012 Republican current and tossed out on November 6.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/10/30/are_we_looking_at_an_undertow_election.html (where I got the undertow anlogy)

[Further undertow thoughts:  *MI* is only +3 Obama right now (he won MI by 16 in 2008!) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html, with MN and PA(!) both in play, as well.  Republicans are killing it with absentee ballots over 2008 in OH with a 58% reduction of Democrat advantage:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0.  OH usually has less D+ turnout than the country and many OH "already voted" voters may actually be, cough, lying:  http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331593/why-romney-doesnt-need-poll-lead-ohio-josh-jordan  http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331854/national-polls-vs-ohio-polls-which-are-right-josh-jordan  Finally, why I, also, believe Pres. Obama is toast:  http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/]