Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Did Romney Under-perform McCain? Blame CA/NY

Part of this year's post-presidential election conventional wisdom is that Mitt Romney blew it because he did worse than John McCain.  Let's consider that conclusion.

Mitt Romney by Gage Skidmore 6.jpgAs of November 14, 2012, Mitt Romney received 58,937,514 votes nationwide for the presidential election (, compared with John McCain's 59,934,814 in 2008 (,_2008).  How could this possibly happen when everything was expected to look up for Republicans?  It's actually quite simple:  California and New York.

Romney received 1,902,301 fewer votes than McCain in CA/NY combined, yet he received 905,001 more votes, nationwide.  He did 24.50% worse in CA/NY combined and did 1.73% better nationwide.  Hmmm . . .

John McCain official portrait with alternative background.jpgHow did the President do against himself?  He received a whopping 7,149,999 fewer votes nationwide or 10.29% off his 2008 landslide.  Excluding CA/NY, he did 6.24% worse.  In other words, President Obama did almost ten times worse against himself than Romney did against McCain (10.29% decrease vs. 1.66% decrease).  Excluding CA/NY, President Obama did about eight times worse against himself than Romney did against McCain (6.24% decrease vs. 1.73% increase).

See my numbers, here:

As the title indicates, blame CA/NY for Romney's slide in his vote total.  After all, how many people really expected him to carry either state?

As for other states, the only one I've found where Romney actually under-performed McCain is, I am sad and embarrassed to admit, Ohio.  The humanity!!  Why did Romney lose Ohio?  See here:

Why did Romney lose the election?  Per Michael Medved, President Obama's nuclear warfare (his "dirty little secret"):

I got the idea for the CA/NY/nation difference from

No comments: